You'll never have it so good

The long-range weather forecast for the 21st century from Northern Earth 64

With the onset of global warming now inevitable, we will see a picture emerging of milder, cloudier and wetter winters, most especially in the north and west of the region. This will mean that cities such as Manchester will within fifty years become up to 15% wetter than at present. There'll also be an increase in the number of severe storms running across the region causing structural damage to buildings, and there'll be flooding and landslides in many areas.

The summers will generally be both hotter and drier than at present, with the chance of a repeat of the summer heat waves of 1976 and 1995 increasing from one every 1000 years to one every five, so lots of long uninterrupted periods of hot sunshine can be expected - though together with a likely further loss of the ozone layer over Northern Europe this will mean that the incidence of skin cancers is likely to rise.

In summary, then, by 2050 the climate across the North is likely to be similar to that of present-day Southern England and as we head towards the end of the 21st century, the climate will increasingly resemble that of S.W.France and northern Spain, with overall temperatures increasing by a warm 2.5°C.

Increasingly severe summer droughts will lead to a greater risk of subsidence for buildings built on clay-rich areas like the Vale of York as the clay dries out, and despite the increased winter rainfall result in an overall water deficit across the north; in summer, reservoirs will be prone to toxic Blue-Green Algae. The upland peat bogs of the Pennines will gradually fade as the sphagnum moss dries, threatening the habitat of birds such as the Dunlin and Golden Plover; surrounding fields, like this year, will lose their lush greenness and resemble yellowed dustbowls in summer. The hotter summers will, however, provide conditions for a wine industry, especially on south-facing limestone slopes as in the Dales; sunflowers and maize may also be grown. Insects such as cockroaches, fleas and ants will flourish under the new conditions, which will also be suitable for certain health dangers. A rise of 0.5°C. would be enough to encourage bubonic plague and leishmanisis. Trees such as the Scots Pine, which has been such a favourite among ley-hunters since Alfred Watkins, may be unable to migrate north fast enough to survive.

The odd hot summer can be fun, and climatic change is no stranger to our older archaeological sites, but do you yourself fancy this scenario for your future field trips? Check with your local Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace groups about their climate initiatives and pressure on local councils to sign the Climate Resolution!

[This article was adapted by permission from The Globe, the North's green magazine, #26 July-August 1995]

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